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investors say goodbye to january. will the winter wonderland in the markets continue? in today's cover story - on this jobs friday, new ways job seekers are getting hired. plus, the commercials only last 30 seconds but stay with us all year long. find out how companies craft a winning super bowl spot. why the justice department is trying to break up a merger between beer companies. and, could google profit from gangnam? our traders search for the answers. first business starts now. you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning. it's friday, february 1st. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: january jobs. traders will key their trading off the latest news on the labor market from the goverment today. it's
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expected 195,000 jobs were added, and the unemployment rate will tick down to 7.7%. january joy: the first month of the year was a good one for the stock market. the dow's top performers gained nearly 6%, and among the commodities oil had its best start of a new year since 2006, which pumped up prices at the gas station. the average cost of gallon of unleaded jumped 13 cents this month. and in legal action, peregrine ceo russell wasendorf will get 50 years in prison - the max - for cheating investors out of $215 million. todd horwitz of the adam mesh group joins us now. he has a closer look at the jobs trade. what are you expecting in trading off the jobs number today? > > good morning. all signs the whole week pointed to this one number. the expected number for
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the forecast is 195. the expected number is 215. if we're not north of 215, i think the market is going to be in for a little bit of a rocky ride today. > todd, as you know, they often say, as goes january goes the rest of the year. this was a terrific january. what do you think? > > i don't see a reason why it wouldn't. fundamentally we still have the same weaknesses we have had for the last two or three years, but, the market wants to go higher, the trend is higher, the tape is higher, so i can't fight it. i've just got to follow the trend. > there are also positive signs from manufacturing, but that did not seem to play out well in the market yesterday. why not? > > you know, the market is kind of pricing in perfection right now. so if the numbers are not better - and much better - than expected, you start to have a little bit of a problem. we get ahead of ourselves, as we did last september, where the market was pricing in all this perfection. now we are again pricing in perfection. and once we stop meeting those forecasts, we can look for some damage going the other way.
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> thank you and have a great weekend. > > thank you have a great day. in our cover story: if you don't have an in where you're applying for work - someone who can put in a good word for you - new trends are popping up to help you get noticed and get hired. a new website, better weekday, pre-interviews talented professionals on their skills and preferences through jobscript software, then makes that list available to recruiters who pay a fee for access. but founder chris motley warns applicants he learned some tough interviewing techniques from his days on wall street. "when you focus on something on a resume, drill down. you can tell a lot about integrity by questioning what they've presented to you." at vibes, which specializes in mobile marketing, christine schoeff says the standout applicants have researched the firm online. "social media is definitely a place to start. tailor your application to what you see the company doing and what it brings to the market."
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and then there's this revelation: "companies now don't really look at job applications as much as go to social media sites to find applicants through those sites." that's right. sending out stacks of resumes may be less fruitful than updating your linkedin page. prospective employers may be looking for you and you don't even know it. "if i'm recruiting an rn with case management experience, i'm going to go to indeed, linkedin, and some of the professional association sites and job boards." an encouraging sign for hiring,
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nationwide, layoffs in january were among the lowest in 20 years. john challenger of outplacement firm challenger gray and christmas says it suggests that the economy is heading upward in the early part of the year. we won't have to worry about the debt ceiling for a few months. the senate approved a bill yesterday for a short-term suspension of the debt limit until may 19th, easing fears of a government default. the president is expected to sign it soon. the bill also includes an incentive for lawmakers to create a budget by april 15th - or go without pay. mortgage rates are on the rise. according to freddie mac, 30- year rates surpassed 3.5% for the first time in nearly four months. the average 30-year fixed rose to 3.53%, up from 3.42% last week. the 15-year fixed jumped to 2.81% from 2.71%. the company allegedly behind robo signing mortgages is paying a $120-million settlement. 46 states will recieve a share of the payout. the company, lender processing
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services, is accused of wrongfully foreclosing on homes when people should have been allowed to stay. the company is accused of using robo-signing to automatically sign documents without proper review. shares of lender processing services rallied yesterday. walmart is putting limits on ammunition sales. the world's largest gun retailer will limit sales of ammo to three boxes per customer per day. walmart says it's in response to limited supplies. ammunition and gun sales have risen following the tragic sandy hook school shooting. most of the picketing against walmart is coming to a close. walmart filed a complaint with the national labor relations board after the union lead a demonstration during the holidays. union workers protested over low wages and reduced work hours. walmart claimed the protests were disruptive to holiday shoppers. the union has agreed to back down as part of a settlement. bids for hostess brands are heating up. initial offers for
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the bankrupt baker's product divisions are up to nearly $9 million. this week, hostess chose a $410-million joint offer for its twinkies and other snack cakes from c. dean metropoulos & company and apollo global management. call it a beer block. the u.s. justice department wants to stop a $20-billion merger between anheuser busch in-bev and grupo modelo sab. the merge would make prices pop and the u.s. beer market less competitive, according to the department of justice. ab in-bev already owns a 50% stake in modelo, which makes corona extra, modelo especial and pacifico. the maker of budweiser products plans to fight the doj's decision, but says the deal is off for now. constellation brands also had a side deal as part of the takeover. we'll have more on that stock later in chart talk. japan's largest airline is doing the math on its dreamliner losses. japanese airline all nippon airways, or ana, says it has taken a $15-million revenue loss following the grounding of
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787s. 459 of ana's flights were cancelled as investigators look for clues into what sparked fire and smoke onboard dreamliners. ana plans to seek damages from boeing, but says it doesn't expect the problems to last long. analysts say it could be the richest ipo since facebook: pfizer is spinning off its animal health unit zoetis. zoetis sold 86.1 million shares priced in at $26, which was above range, and raised $2.2 billion. facebook raised $16 billion. zoetis shares begin trading today under ticker symbol zts. meanwhile, tri-point homes shares jumped over $2 after its public debut on thursday. the home builder trades under tph. a challenging year resulted in disappointing earnings at ups. the shipping company reported a net loss, which the company says was caused by fewer shipments across the globe and weaker- than-expected holiday sales
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numbers. meanwhile, at mastercard, the company saw higher revenues due to an increase in credit card use. mastercard shares shot up to an all-time high of $536 before closing at $517. and, candy company hershey's is far from bitter. sales for all of its candy categories where solid, while profits were up 5.4%. law school applications are about to hit a 30-year low. this year about 54,000 applications are expected, according to the law school admission council. in 2004, 100,000 students applied. would- be students are turned off by pricey tuition, a massive debt load, and the lack of jobs in the field. some schools are trying to lure new students with tuition discounts and lowered admission standards.
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still to come, we ask our traders if they are "all in" on wall street's new hot stock. but first, let the games begin. a preview of the superbowl ads everyone will be talking about come monday morning. stay with us.
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on sunday, millions will tune in to watch the baltimore ravens versus the san francisco 49ers in the super bowl. the better business bureau says don't let your inner superfan, get scammed. "with any super game like this, there are always going to be scams. the biggest one is usually counterfiet tickets and counterfiet products. you want to be sure you are getting an nfl-licensed product." that was steve bernas of the bbb. he says poor quality is a warning sign that the merchandise is not official. online, the bureau warns of scam sites such as pro-, for which the bbb cannot find a physical address and the site was formed within the last month, registered in china. and, if you are trying to score a ticket, go through an offical site such as ticketmaster. nfl ticket exchange has tickets for re-sale which go for between 3 and 20 thousand dollars. check out the bbb's website for more information. now on to the fun part of the super bowl: the commercials.
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this year, corporate america is working every angle to pump up viewership of the ads that run during the game. days ahead of the kick-off, companies are putting out sneak peaks. budweiser is giving a glimpse of its "lucky chair" spot. coke is asking fans to decide the punch line of this ad. and some companies are letting the entire commerical roll to increase the eyeball factor. "they are looking at 1.72 million youtube views on an ad that would be seen at the super bowl that would be watched as opposed to releasing it early you could have over 9 million." marketing professor david koehler believes super bowl commericals are on a fast track this year, as corporations see the value in capturing viewer attention on traditional tv as well as social media. volkswagon is one of those companies: "i think at the end of the day it's such a great platform early in the year - large
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viewership, really amplified by social media. it certainly has given us the return that we're looking for." volkswagen is a repeat customer at the big game. the automaker scored huge points with its darth vader ad in 2012. this year vw is stirring up controversy with its "get happy" campaign, featuring a carribean accent which some are calling culturally insenstive. dorito's is giving aspring advertisers a shot at 1 million dollars. we spoke with a couple of the finalists who created dorito's commercials that will air during the game, leaving americans to choose the winner. "we eat it, we grew up with it, and ad agencies, compared to us - they got nothing." here's the ad by sasha shemirani.
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tyler dixon believes he has all the elements you need when it comes to making a great spot. "it's cute, it's funny, you've got a dog, you've got a baby..." and while you may question whether placing an ad in the super bowl is worth the hype, the marketing professor we talked to points out ad prices have jumped from $3.5 million to $4 million and sold out.
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still ahead, will a youtube sensation mean a boost for google? find out what our traders think next, in traders unplugged ♪
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what do you get when you mix waffling stocks, oil, and a hot new dance? traders unplugged of course! joining us this morning from the floor of the cme group to break down the hot topics, scott shellady and alan knuckman. good to have you guys on the show. round one: get long or be wrong? is it time to snap up more stocks as the market waffles around a 5-year high? > > i am positive on assets. i think the stock run is overextended a bit, but i think it is going to go higher eventually. i am looking at some dollar-denominated assets to play catch-up. i am looking at a lot of commodities. commodities are 15% below their highs of 2008. > > i can't tell anybody to close their eyes and buy with both hands right here. we have got something called momentum. i call it "fed-mentum." we have got an automatic pit built underneath this market. way too many people are trying to keep the powder dry. i think we are not going to see the pullbacks, we are just going to see a slow grind higher. but i still think it's too dangerous to buy just
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because the fed is buying- > > so it is going higher, but you don't want to buy. you figure that out at home. > > we have to be very careful. > round two: google your money. "gangnam style" made $8 million on youtube. does this up the stock value of youtube's parent company google? > > once again, it's the economy, stupid. i think the economy still has some major cracks in it, that is why i am afraid of getting long that stock market. so, if we have some worries about the economy, like the gdp numbers we are getting, i don't think the consumer confidence is going to be there- > > google has huge revenues. huge advertising revenues. this stock has gone from $250 up to near its highs, above $750 or so. but, they make a lot of money. i just wanted to compare it against something like apple. apple has had this sharp decline. everybody is talking about when to buy apple, but they have been ignoring google. google is an amazing company, an amazing stock performance. > > okay, so you want to buy new highs? that is a good thing to do, all right? i will let you do that right now, but i think now it is overpriced. > round three: exxon: is that a buy, sell or fold? > > it is a sell again, because of the economy. oil is going to
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be a harbinger of how well we are doing with this economy. right now i can't get behind the fact that things are getting better, they are just less bad. > > mr. macro. you have to be able to pick out individual investment opportunities. not everything goes one way or the other way. exxon just surpassed apple in market cap. it is coming back, and i am looking at crude oil as a better pure play. i am looking for crude oil to get back up to $115 again. as that dollar declines, we are 10% above the lows in the dollar from 2008. so looking for crude to get to $115, then $140, and we're still below the 2008 lows. > > all i can say is, the macros say right now, if you really like the oil market, then get long a basket of those oil stocks. i am not going to pick just one- > > crude! straight out crude oil! > > okay, well, there you go. a straight up crude oil trade, not crude companies. > we need some oil for the bonus round question: much ado has been made about chicken wings and the super bowl this year. what's your best guess on how many wings americans will eat during the big game? around 1 billion, 5 billion, or 10 billion wings? > > wow. that's...
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> > i suppose that depends on whether i am eating or not. [laughter > come on! take a guess! > > i will go with five. i always take the middle one. five. > > i will say 10. > it is 1.23 billion. > > all right. > first business continues right after this break. thanks guys.
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shares of constellation brands were extremely active in trading yesterday. let's talk about what could happen today with scott bauer of trading advantage. good morning, and what do you expect here scott? > > hi there angie. boy, this thing just out of nowhere exploded to the downside. we finally found out after the stock had dropped 10 bucks - so we are talking about from $39 down to $29 - is that the department of justice was investigating the acquisition that budweiser had with constellation, which was a really good thing for constellation. that being said,
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we saw that plunge in the stock, we saw volume just go absolutely off the board. they actually had to shut the stock down for a while because of the circuit breakers. we saw huge activity in put buying, in $35, $32.50, $37.50 put buying. by the end of the day, though, when all was said and done, constellation settled back in right in the low $30s range, which is about where it came from six, nine months ago, before the news of this agreement with budweiser. it is not over yet. > yes or no, is this stock a buy now at these levels? is this stock a buy? > > if we get back down to $30, yes. that is a major, major support area. > good to have you on the show. that is scott bauer of trading advantage. > > thanks angie. that closes out our week. coming up next week: if you think you have discovered the next big thing in tech, why venture capitalists are looking for you. from all of us at first business, thank you for watching and have a great weekend!

First Business
KICU February 1, 2013 4:00am-4:30am PST

30 Seconds of Fame News/Business. Angie Miles. (2013) This year's Super Bowl commercials. New. (CC) (Stereo)

TOPIC FREQUENCY Us 4, Google 4, Angie 2, Scott Bauer 2, Exxon 2, Grupo Modelo 1, David Koehler 1, Steve Bernas 1, Tyler Dixon 1, Hershey 1, Boeing 1, Ab 1, Pacifico 1, Pfizer 1, Scott Shellady 1, Alan Knuckman 1, Baker 1, Christine Schoeff 1, Angela 1, Russell Wasendorf 1
Network KICU
Duration 00:30:00
Rating G
Scanned in San Francisco, CA, USA
Source Comcast Cable
Tuner Channel 19 (153 MHz)
Video Codec mpeg2video
Audio Cocec ac3
Pixel width 704
Pixel height 480
Sponsor Internet Archive
Audio/Visual sound, color

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on 2/1/2013